So much continues to be written on the so-called “fiscal cliff” that someone had to sift through the 100s of such articles and find those worth one’s time to read. I have done just that and provide below links to 10 of the best such articles each of which been edited for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure you a fast and easy read. Enjoy!
By Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!).
The warnings that the fiscal cliff will cause a recession are delivered as if the government can decide whether or not we have a recession. In fact, the government does not have that power, or we would never have recessions. At the most, the government can influence when, not if, we have a recession. We will most likely undergo a recession when we wean ourselves off the unsustainable deficit spending of the last four years. The choice is not recession or no recession. The choice is recession now or recession later. [Let me explain.] Words: 542
What is the “Fiscal Cliff”? What would its ramifications be? Will it tip the U.S. into a recession? What are the critical economic building blocks that would be adversely affected? How best should you position your portfolio for such an eventuality.
We all know that high debt is a growth killer and, at the moment, the U.S. has a budget deficit of about $1 trillion. That’s a very big number…The question is, at what point do countries have to deal with high debt levels? How high do debt levels have to be before one has to deal with the problem by lowering budget deficits? Also, what are the consequences of such debt and budget reductions? Words: 500
“Portfolio managers have been swayed by hope over experience” when it comes to anticipating the effects the fiscal cliff will have on ma
rkets. Investors aren’t giving as much attention to the fiscal cliff as they should be, and that may be helping to set the markets up for a repeat of last year, when the debt ceiling negotiations sent stocks plummeting.
The U.S. federal government is scheduled to implement a fiscal tightening of unprecedented severity (approx. 5% of GDP) at the start of 2013. The last time a tightening of such proportions occurred (3% of GDP in 1969) it presaged a recession. Thus, unless mitigated by an act of Congress, we expect the fiscal cliff would lead the U.S. into a recession in 2013. Below, in 26 charts, we examine all aspects of the impending crisis to gauge its potential impact on the credit markets and, by extension, our strategic investment recommendations.
Unless the government acts quickly, it is probable that the term “fiscal cliff” will become a household phrase over the next few months. Unfortunately, this is reminiscent of the budget ceiling crisis about a year ago. In this report we will explain what the cliff is, discuss the worst case scenario, and determine what, if anything, you should do about it. Words: 1436
If Congress addresses the issue by maintaining the current tax and spending policies we will get more of the same economy we have experienced for the past three years (all else being equal). [That being said,] what if Congress goes over the fiscal cliff hit? This blog post is designed to asses the impact. Words: 1362
…Fiscal policy, both in the U.S. and in Europe, has already been a drag on economic growth, and it’s extremely likely to continue to be one as politicians begin addressing concerns about long-term debt burdens. The debate about the fiscal cliff deal might revolve around the preferred paths to reducing the nation’s long-term debt, but it also will determine just how much fiscal policy will limit growth over the coming months and years. What’s really at stake, in the near term at least, is the answer to two important and interrelated questions: How dysfunctional is our political leadership and how bad is our economy going to be next year?