Stock Indices

"Where breadth goes, the market usually follows,” goes an old market saying and as Richard Russell said recently, "In a deteriorating market breadth situation where the ‘soldiers’ are deserting even while the ‘generals’ continue to march forward would be a prelude to disaster. In the stock market, it may be the same." [Let's review the current situation and see where we're at.] Words: 478

With bullish analysts predicting the S&P 500 index will finish above 1500 this year the recent pullback may [well be] be just a blip. On the other hand, here are seven reasons U.S. indicies could lose 20% or more in the next two months. Words: 719

Most first quarter 2011 earnings reports are in and...over three-quarters exceeded expectations... [with] results showing a desirable combination of growing revenues, profitability and cash flow ... [As such,] today's stock market valuations are conservative compared to typical bull markets accompanied by investor enthusiasm. In the past, using 2011's estimated earnings, the average P/E ratio could easily be 15 and...that would put the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) at 15,000 today – about 20% above today's level. [Were we to] add in high optimism like the kind we've seen in other investments recently, a 20 P/E ratio would be possible - and the DJIA would be 20,000 – 60% higher [than it is today! Let's take a look at the possibility.] Words: 540

The Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio, abbreviated as CAPE, or the more precise P/E10, closely tracks the real (inflation-adjusted) price of the S&P Composite. After dropping to 13.3 in March 2009, the P/E10 has rebounded to 23.0. The historical average is 16.39 raising concerns about the current price level of the S&P Composite. Let me explain. Words: 1298

There are different ways to interpret corporate profits and different ways to measure them [and in this article I substantiate] my belief that profits are quite strong and that the market is almost certainly not overestimating their value [unlike other analysts who, in articles here and here, and using different criteria, have come to different conclusions. Please read all the various points of view and come to your own conclusions.] Words: 646

A number of secondary indicators are showing worrisome negative divergences... indicating that the risk-reward tradeoff [for stocks] is becoming increasingly unfavorable. [As such,] the prospect of selling in May and going away is starting to sound good right now. [Let me explain.] Words: 536

Trading the TRAN all on its own will produce better returns than most systems when you have the power of the dominant Hurst cycles on your side - and all indications are that 'Sell in May' may be late this year ! Let me explain how the Dow Theory works and illustrate the ebb and flow of its signals with 2 charts. Words: 919

It has been determined by a number of market analysts (see below) that the S&P 500 could continue its progression to as high as 1500 in the first half of 2011 before it collapses completely based on a unique comparison with the Nikkei 225. Before you reject this possibility out of hand please read the entire article. Words: 596

About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over-performance turns into under-performance [ i.e. reverts to the mean or average trend line] and vice versa [and depending on what data you use the stock market could be setting up for a MAJOR fall. How major? Read on!] Words: 840

Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? Without a crystal ball, we simply don't know. One thing we can do is examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of possibilities [so let's do just that by looking at charts of the inflation-adjusted secular highs and lows and regressions to trend of the S&P 500 from 1871 to the present so we can make some sense of it all]. Words: 682