Stock Indices

Since the late 1800's, the Dow has experienced three periods where it traded sideways, ranging from 13 to 17 years, [which always] resulted in upside breakouts . The S&P 500 finds itself within a few percentage points of where it was 13 years ago [so the question is "Has the time now come for the Dow and S&P 500 to once again go Up, UP and Awaaay?" Let's take a look at some charts.] Words: 299; Charts: 2

Buffett's measure - the percentage of total market cap (TMC) relative to the U.S. GNP crossed 100% last week into stretched territory for the first time since 2007 which implies a mere return of around 3.3% annualized (including dividends) over the following years. [This post presents the components of the ratio and the conclusions drawn.]

The Swimsuit Issue Indicator says that U.S. equity markets perform better in years when an American appears on the cover of Sports Illustrated's annual issue as opposed to years when a non-American appears on the cover. [What is the nationality of this year's cover model? Can we expect returns above the norm or will we see a year of underperformance for the S&P 500 this year? Read on.] Words: 323 ; Table: 1

Investors are more bullish now than at any time since 2002 but the current rally has not been fueled by improved prospects of actual growth and wealth creation. Instead, it’s mostly due to 1) investors desperate for income denied them elsewhere by central bank policies; 2) printed stimulus cash seeking a home and 3) sheer technical momentum but nowhere do they seem to be considering market risk - the risk that your investment will lose value because it gets dragged down in a falling market. Words: 615

What you are about to read below is startling. •Every time that the market has fallen in recent years, insiders have been able to get out ahead of time... •[What] is so alarming [this time round is] that corporate insiders are selling nine times as many shares as they are buying right now. •In addition, some extraordinarily large bets have just been made that will only pay off if the financial markets in the U.S. crash by the end of April. •So what does all of this mean? [Could it be that they] have insider knowledge that a market crash is coming? Evaluate the evidence below and decide for yourself. Words: 570

Don’t buy this stock market. It isn’t worth the risk. Relative to earnings, most stocks aren’t expensively priced—but there’s a reason for that. [Let me explain.] Words: 318

Higher (lower) inflation expectations have remained closely bound with higher (lower) stock prices [of late but] this odd connection won't last forever...[but] until that changes, it's best to go with the flow....[This article explains] the new abnormal. Words: 266

As we all know, money printing always leads to inflation. It's just a matter of figuring out which assets get inflated. This time around gold is not the only beneficiary, stocks are, too, and I'm convinced that the chart below holds the key to the end of the bull market. Words: 475; Charts: 1

Ever since the Dow broke the 14,000 mark and the S&P broke the 1,500 mark, even in the face of a shrinking GDP print, a lot of investors and commentators have been anxious. Some are proclaiming a rocket ride to the moon as bond money now rotates into stocks....[while] others are ringing the warning bell that this may be the beginning of the end, and a correction is likely coming. I find it a bit surprising, however, that no one is talking of the single largest driver for stocks in the past 4 years - massive monetary base expansion by the Fed. (This article does just that and concludes that the S&P 500 could well see a year end number of 1872 (+25%) and, realistically, another 28% increase in 2014 to 2387 which would represent a 60% increase from today's level.) Words: 600; Charts: 3

For the month of January, U.S. stocks experienced the best month in more than two decades [and the Dow hit 14,009 on Feb. 1st for the first time since 2007]. Per the Stock Traders’ Almanac market indicator, the “January Barometer,” the performance of the S&P 500 Index in the first month of the year dictates where stock prices will head for the year. Let’s hope so.... [This article identifies f more solid reasons why equities should do well in 2013.] Words: 453