Stock Indices

"The end is near" has been the bears' dire prediction since the start of the bull market on March 9, 2009. This year's rally to new record highs suggests that the bears have lost their credibility and that investors are becoming increasingly convinced that the end is actually still far off.

It's hard to believe there is more upside left in the stock market considering this year's rally...[yet, while] the indices may be wildly overbought in the near term, ...stocks could have a few more years of big gains ahead.

There's nothing to be bearish about regarding the stock market these days. I've reviewed my 9 point "Bear Market Checklist" of indicators and it is a perfect 0-for-9. Not even one indicator on the list is even close to flashing a warning sign so pop a pill and relax. There's no immediate danger threatening stocks.

Despite bulls’ assertions otherwise, the stock markets are not cheap today.  They are quite expensive and very overbought, ripe for a serious selloff. The S&P 500 stock index now has average valuations matching the ones seen in October 2007 when the last cyclical bull topped. Valuations should be around 12x or 13x now, 13 years into this 17-year secular bear.  …

Right now there's nothing to be bearish about. I say that with conviction, because my "Bear Market Checklist" is a perfect 0-for-9. Heck, not a single indicator on the list is even close to flashing a warning sign. We've got nothing but big whiffers! Take a look. Pop a pill and relax. There's no immediate danger threatening stocks.

There are several fundamental reasons to believe that this week's stock market activity, where the S&P 500 has moved more than 4% above the 13-year trading range defined by the 2000 and 2007 highs, could mark the beginning of a long-term bull market and the end of the range-bound trading that has lasted for 13 years.

For the past few years West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTIC) oil and the S&P 500 have trended together and have hit key highs and lows around the same time window. WTIC is now within 1% of the top of its multi-year pennant pattern which has brought on short-term S&P 500 corrections. What does that mean for the future direction of the S&P 500 this time round?

The S&P 500 is trading at near record high levels on the back of liquidity glut in the financial system. I mention the liquidity factor because all other fundamental factors do not support current levels and valuations.

Many articles have been posted today, May 1st, regarding the investing adage "sell in May and go away". Below are links to 10 such articles on the subject to help you decide what course of action you should take.

Some times in history, investors feel so confident about the future of stocks, they actually use up all their available cash and then borrow money to invest in the stock market. Now is one of those times - and it suggests that now is the time to lower one's stock exposure. Here's why.