Stock Indices

The Tokyo Nikkei Average rose +82% in just six months in a parabolic move that was doomed from the start. They almost always are. When a parabolic move breaks, as it did in May, the speed of the decline can be catastrophic and has fallen 22% to date. The downside expectation is for prices to return to the level of the basing pattern that preceded it. In this case between 8300 to 9100. That is not a prediction, just the level we at which we might expect to start looking for a tradable bottom.

The euphoria phase of the bull market that I warned about months ago is now beginning its final parabolic phase. I'm guessing we still have another 1 to 1.5 months before this runaway move finally ends.

There are two market warning signs which have just recently been triggered and which have gotten a lot of press attention due to their catchy names - the Titanic Syndrome and the Hindenburg Omen - both of which are giving a “preliminary sell signal” based on analyses of 52-week New Lows (NL) in relation to New Highs (NH) on the NYSE within a specific period of time.

Penny stock volume as a percentage of Nasdaq volume became a very large percentage (3.2%) back in the dotcom bubble peak in February of 2000, reflecting that a high level of speculative trading was taking place. In the next few years the Nasdaq 100 lost over 80% of its value! Recently such penny stock volume has risen to a record high of 4.5%! Will it be different this time?

We have been in the throes of a secular bear market, subject to strong cyclical swings in either direction, since 2000. Currently, based on the 5 leading investment indicators analyzed in this article, the measures all confirm that, from a longer-term perspective, the market remains overvalued. Let's take a look at each to see why that is the case.

The Dow is just a "pinch away" from a series of resistance lines, ranging from 13 years to 31 years, that have marked important emotional highs & lows in the past suggesting that once the Dow reaches 16,000 or so it will correct.

The GNP numbers came out this week for the first quarter of 2013 and there was 1.8% growth yoy to $16.236 trillion...What does this mean to your equity positioning?

Two charts today, both from Goldman Sachs, focus on US equity valuations and suggest that the secular bear market in US stocks is over. Are we really experiencing an historical anomaly that falls into a "this time is different" narrative or is the current secular bear market not over just yet?

In the 7 years that the Greedometer has been used there have been zero missed calls, and zero false alarms. The 7th warning began in January and in late February,the Greedometer gauge reached an epic 7900rpm which is marginally higher than the 7700rpm maximum reading seen 3 months prior to the S&P500 peak in October 2007. [This article outlines the development and successes of the Greedometer and the new Mini Greedometer and what they are predicting for the stock market in 2013.] Words: 1420

The global equity market faces a number of risks and the risks I worry about most are those that aren't completely reflected in relevant asset prices. In other words, if these scenarios [were to] occur, investors...[wouldn't be] compensated for any resulting violent market reaction. Here's a look at four such risks.