Stock Indices

Stock market volatility, directed mostly to the downside this year, has caught the attention of anyone with funds at risk. The obvious question on most people’s minds is whether to get out or to put more money in. Advice going both ways is readily available. Here are some such articles. Take them into account and make your own decision regarding whether this correction is an opportunity to buy or a signal to sell.

Warren Buffett's favorite indicator - the ratio of the value of U.S. stocks to GDP - is seen by him as a reliable gauge of where the market stands and these days it suggests that all the main indexes are pointing to an imminent 50% crash.

The tables below provide an update of where the current S&P 500 bull market stands in comparison to prior bull markets in terms of duration and magnitude

Investors generally assign higher multiples to many Nasdaq firms, as they expect significant future growth, but if volatility ensues and growth, which is already priced in, isn't realized by these firms a violent reaction to broken promises will ensue just as happened in 2000. For that matter there are a number of similarities between the current level of the Nasdaq index and back then that strongly suggest that the bubble is here. Let me explain why I believe that is the case.

Over the next couple of months everything should generally rise together but once the dollar puts in an intermediate bottom sometime in March or April, commodities and gold will move down into an intermediate correction as the stock market completes its final blow off top. After the stock market parabola collapses later this summer it will be time to put the pedal to the metal in the commodity markets, and especially the precious metal markets as the Great Inflation begins in earnest.

If you have 401k assets, are a financial professional or individual investors looking to construct portfolios and not move monies very often, and looking to beat inflation over an extended period of time, the chart below is well worth being aware of.

The markets are considerably, fantastically overbought and that whatever happens after this “Wall Street Party” is going to be a sort of catastrophe. Here's why.

The Dow is up almost 28% but the chart below showing how it's 12% annualized gain over the past 5-years compares with past bull markets suggest we are probably not at a top - that "We ain't seen nothin' yet!" Take a look.

What is the likely market return in the coming new year? This articles tries to answer that question by presenting technical and fundamental market factors that are influencing the market in the coming year. Some of these factors point to a positive market return this year while others point to negative influences. Let's take a look.

The Fed has manufactured a parabolic move in the stock market...which is much more aggressive (and thus even more unsustainable) than witnessed at either the 2000 or 2007 stock market tops. Parabolas always collapse - there are never any exceptions - so when the pin finds this bubble it's going to take down not only our stock market, but unleash a destructive force on the global economy.