Stock Indices

You have to get out of stocks. Stocks have bubbled again and when they go down they’re going to go down hard.

Amazingly, we are on the verge of a global deflationary downturn and what could be a historic bear market, yet Wall Street prognosticators remain focused on the inflationary risks of excessive monetary stimulus. Their focus could not be more wrong. Let me explain further.

A near-term market pullback of as much as 10% is likely but we're still in bull market cycle that has just begun to run. There are years left to go on this secular bull market and, indeed, Benjamin Graham's P/E formula implies a 2015 S&P price target of somewhere around 2476 to 2545.

Once again the stock market is in full bubble mode. The market was already overvalued earlier this year and the froth continues to build. Valuations are off the chart and euphoria is setting in while, at the same time, you have inflation eroding the purchasing power of regular Americans not participating in this casino. All the signs of a bubble top are there - massive speculation, unexplainable valuations, and blind optimism - even though the fundamentals don’t make any sense. This article substantiates that contention.

Trying to predict markets more than a couple of days into the future is nothing more than a "wild ass guess" at best but, that being said, we can make some reasonable assumptions about potential outcomes based on our extensive analysis of these 6 specific price trend and momentum indicators.

The 10-year yield’s Death Cross has proven to be a pretty significant risk-off shot across the bow over the last decade and this matters today because the 10-year yield put in a Death Cross back in early April of this year. So what does the 10-Year's Death Cross mean for stocks this time?

The financial markets are drastically over-capitalizing earnings and over-valuing all asset classes so, as the Fed and its central bank confederates around the world increasingly run out of excuses for extending the radical monetary experiments of the present era, even the gamblers will come to recognize who is really the Wile E Coyote in the piece. Then they will panic.

Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett and it is now at the second highest level in the past 60 years - even surpassing the levels reached in 2007.

Is this stock market decline the "real deal" (that is, the start of a serious correction of 10% or more) or is it just another garden-variety dip in the long-running Bull market?

To ignore all the compelling charts and data below would be irresponsible and, as such, will NOT go unnoticed by institutional investors. Such bearish barometers for stocks worldwide will, unfortunately, be ignored by the ignorant and gullible hoi pollo causing them severe financial loss as investor complacency in the past has nearly always led to a stock market crash.