Stock Indices

Where does the Dow go from here? Maybe up a little higher but, more likely, it's all downhill from here though perhaps that statement is misleading. More like, down a cliff.

Equity markets in the U.S. have bounced back over the past couple of weeks and have shown strong momentum to the upside. We are now well into the fourth year of a rising equity market and we might now reasonably ask the obvious question, "When might this end?"

The forward price/earnings (PE) ratio is probably the most popular way to measure value in the stock market - when the forward PE is above average, the market is expensive and future returns will be low and, when the PE ratio is below average, the market is cheap and future returns will be high. Putting such popular rules of thumb aside, what does the forward PE really tell us?

What is unique about this rally is the excessive premium being placed on future earnings and economic growth. Unfortunately, the level and term structure of interest rates are not confirming the broad logic behind these equity market valuations. In fact, they damn that logic. In the past, when high valuation measures occurred and subsequent GDP was weak, the stock market has posted substantial losses. What can we expect this time?

Warren Buffett's favorite macro valuation tool is screaming that U.S. stocks are nearing bubble territory. This is a time to stay tactical, focus on income, and look to buy pockets of value as you see them.

The DOOM & GLOOM pundits are predicting a crash saying that this economic cycle has over-stretched itself - but look again!!!

For months numerous articles have been posted on this site substantiating why a stock market collapse of epic proportions is in the cards to happen soon. The basis for such a conclusion are based on a diverse perspective that warrants your attention. With your money on the line - your future quality of life at risk - here is your opportunity to be forewarned and do something about it.

The current stock market volatility is really not about interest rate ticks in the federal funds market. It's actually about the fact that the entire post-crisis bull market is a monumental house of cards built on a historically aberrant monetary regime that is unsustainable and eventually heading for a crash landing. Let me explain.

On March 9th, 2009 the S&P 500 hit a low of 676.53 and, since that day, it has risen more than 200%. On only 2 other occasions within the last 100 years has the S&P 500 performed this well over a 6 year time frame. This has been great for investors but in both previous instances (1929 & 1999), the end result was utter disaster. Will it be different this time?

Nobody should be surprised when the next bear market in U.S. equities turns out to be of historic proportions - but, of course, almost everyone will be.