Stock Indices

This post focuses on TIPS prices, gold prices, and P/E ratios, and attempts to deduce what they tell us about the assumptions embedded in the market.

Historically, the performance of the S&P 500 Index relative to the U.S. Dollar Index has been a good indicator of bull and bear markets but it has underperformed the Dollar Index since mid-2014. It's an ugly warning sign for the market. I see the stock market moving downward from here.

There are many ways to document the under-performance of the gold and silver mining space. One way is to look at long term charts and measure the run-up or the correction. Another way to measure the under-performance, is in terms of [the price of physical] gold.

Wall Street's stock market gurus are still looking pretty bullish as many continue to forecast double-digit gains over the next year.

Our economy is falling apart all around us, and now another great financial crisis has begun. When will the “nothing is happening” crowd finally wake up? Hopefully it will be before they are sitting out on the street begging for spare change to feed their family.

Let’s imagine the stock market as a whole bunch of balloons. One or two can pop loudly and everyone will jump and then laugh it off but, eventually, enough balloons will pop that the weight of the debris overwhelms the remaining balloons’ ability to keep the string aloft. Then your whole bunch falls down. In like manner, some kind of catalyst sets off every market collapse.The last balloon to pop isn’t any bigger or smaller than the others; it just happens to be last. What are some candidates for that last balloon?

The large gap between the price of copper and U.S. indices is a warning sign that investors should take into consideration before starting new positions. Here's why.

On the very last day of the last two Shemitah years, the stock market crashed so badly that it set a brand new all-time record and now we are in another Shemitah year. It began last fall, and it will end next September. Could it be possible that we will see another historic market crash?

The market's history often provides clues to its future - we're big fans of precedent analysis - so now's a good time to delve into prior, similar instances to see what they led to [and, therefore, what we might expect in the next 2 months].

Where do we go from here? I can promise you, it's only going to get worse! Like our economy, there is clear seasonality when it comes to stocks. Trends flesh out overtime. It's not random. From that data, I want to give you a picture of what the next few months might look like.