Investing

No stock market crash (a decline greater than 15%) has occurred over the past 30 years without the presence of a Hindenburg Omen except on one occasion (the mini-crash of July/August 2011). As such, without an official confirmed Hindenburg Omen, we are pretty safe from experiencing a major stock market correction. On the other hand, if we have an official Hindenburg Omen, then a critical set of market conditions necessary for a stock market crash exists. As of September 19th, 2014, we have such a condition in the market...

To make sense of stocks, bonds and currencies, you need to discern some of the madness (convincingly irrational behavior by policy makers) that’s unfolding in front of our eyes. We assume no responsibility if you turn mad yourself in reading this analysis. Here it is.

Ever since the world suffered a near collapse of its economic and financial system in 2008, investors throughout the world have purchased physical gold in increasing volume. Everywhere, that is, except if you lived in the United States where the opposite was the case. Here's why.

I have seen the light. I have seen the error of my ways. At long last, I understand. This stock market is a great investment. Stocks are just going to keep going up and up and up and up. Anyone who doesn’t buy now is a fool. I have learned to love the bull market. Yeah, sure!

If you’re in the business of fear-mongering, one of the go-to moves to try to scare investors is to predict that the markets are looking eerily similar to October of 1987. That being said, you could actually argue that the 1987 crash was a good thing for the markets. It knocked some of the wind out of its sails after more than doubling from 1982-1986 so it begs the question "Would a Repeat of the 1987 Crash Really Be That Bad?".

Look for huge volume and accumulation in gold and silver over the next few weeks and in some high quality junior mining stocks. Negative capitulation followed by strong accumulation could be the indicator that the smart money expects gold and silver to bottom. The question for many is when this will occur. It should be soon as this correction in the junior miners has been one of the worst and longest in decades providing possibly a once in a generation buying opportunity.

The Russell 3000, a broad equity index representing 98% of the investable U.S. stock market, is up 9.3% for 2014 on a total-return basis...[but] the median total return for Russell 3000 constituents is just 1.5% reflecting the fact that small- and mid-cap stocks are under-performing... This current alarming deterioration in breadth, a term that refers to how much of the market is participating in the advance, begs the question: "Is the stock market sitting on a trap door?" This article looks at 2 trap door indicators that suggest that that might, indeed, be the case.

Some witless pollyannas will say the title of this article is inappropriate. Unfortunately, these hapless souls suffer from excessive greed, rampant euphoria and hyper-complacency. Furthermore, they are ignorant of stock market history and its immutable cycles where only magnitude and duration vary. They foolishly delude themselves into believing that the US Fed has “banned” bear markets and has discovered the “magic elixir” to kill all potential bears while they are still cubs or in hibernation.

The S&P 500 just extended its winning streak to seven straight quarters, and it's reasonable to wonder just how long it can continue...[That being said, however,] investors often enjoy a strong wind at their back in the fourth quarter, based on seasonal patterns and stock market history. Will 2014 be different [or will, as history suggests,] investors find a shiny new quarter during the next three months? [This article looks at these patterns to come to a better understanding of how the markets likely will perform for the balance of 2014.]

Our "Barnyard" analysis from a year ago resulted in 6 out of 8 points indicating that the market would be favorable over the next 6-18 months. That has come true, with the S&P 500 up nearly 20% since then. We expect many will be surprised by the latest Barnyard Forecast which we present below.