Asset Allocation

The benefits of being able to detect a bubble, when you are in its midst, rather than after it bursts, is that you may be able to protect yourself from its consequences. [Below are possible] mechanisms to detect bubbles [and insights as to] how well they work:

With the gold price in dollars breaking decisively the 200 day moving average but with volatility across a broad range of asset classes close to, or at, historic lows...this article looks at what patterns occur in equity and gold prices during both up and down trends and how to adjust your portfolio accordingly.

...For US stocks — and by implication most other equity markets — the danger signals are piling up to the point where a case can be made that the end is, at last, near. Take a look at these examples of indicators that should scare the hell out of anyone with a big stock portfolio.

Market historians will recall the term “Nifty 50” originated in the 1960’s bull market to describe 50 wildly popular large-cap stocks at the time. Interestingly, some of the same names from that list are leading the market higher today. The question for investors, of course, is what this selective advance means for the markets going forward.

The current U.S. equity market has something for everyone. Whether you are bullish or bearish, there is no shortage of indicators or charts you can use to support your thesis. Let’s run through both the Bull and the Bear case here. In the spirit of Confirmation Bias, feel free to skip ahead to the part that best supports your current positioning.

Greed may have been good for Gordon Gekko. but in the investment world it rarely is. As Warren Buffett is famous for saying "...be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” [and now is such a time]...to start showing some level of fear here in the face of extreme greed by the crowd. The crowd can be right for a long time, but they are rarely right at extremes. While this time may be different, the probabilities suggest that at the very least it will be a more difficult environment for equities going forward.

3D printing is making a splash in many industries - such as medicine, automotive and electronics - with the largest end user customer base (38%) located in the US. The infographic below describes how 3D printing works (like me, haven't you always wondered?), details on the ins and outs of 3D printing and its present and future effects on the business world.

Some market commentators are touting gold as a great portfolio diversifier, convincing investors that the precious metal could benefit their portfolio but there may be better alternatives than gold if the motivation is to find a hedge for economic uncertainty or political unrest.

A big short term move in both stocks and gold is probably fairly imminent as periods of extremely low volatility like we are currently experiencing are invariably followed by periods of very high volatility that are brought about by a trigger event of some sort. There will probably be an advance warning somewhere, in a corner of the markets that perhaps isn't widely watched...[so] keep a close eye on these 12 inter-market signals.

I am 100% confident that 1) precious metals will bottom this year and resume a new leg to the upside, 2) the extreme emotions right now regarding gold and silver are typical at major turning points and 3) all the underlying fundamental, cyclical and technical conditions for a new bull market in gold and silver are in place. Here's an update on the latest action in gold, silver, platinum and palladium