Inflation/Deflation

Below is some interesting research by Doug Peta of BCA Research regarding the Fed Funds Rate Cycle, and what that research - as well as our own in-house research - could mean for gold to help you understand the positivity we see for the precious metal looking towards 2015.

A change in monetary, fiscal, and regulatory policy is necessary to beat back the forces of recession and deflation. If the messages of falling gold prices and falling interest rates are not enough to gain the attention of policy makers, I suspect that the specter of future falling stock prices throughout the world will be. That is what is in store for us if the recessionary/deflationary bias in the world economy that gold and bonds are signaling, reasserts itself.

I believe that the inflation and price charts paint a clear picture, and that until inflation in the world picks up significantly, there will be no meaningful rallies in precious metals...[While] I am bullish on gold and silver long term, the short-term pressure is still evident and might take them lower in the next couple of months.

TIPS are telling us that the market is quite pessimistic about the prospects for real growth, but not concerned at all about the outlook for inflation.

At the end of last year virtually every every single economist expected interest rates to rise this year as the Fed tapered their purchases and the economy improved but, in fact, interest rates on the 10 year U.S. Treasury have been going down year to date (from 3% to 2.5% after rising from about 1.6% to 3% last year). The masses, going along with this crowd, got fooled but we have been calling for a decline in interest rates for some time now due to world-wide deflation and it couldn’t be clearer to us that this is the most likely scenario for the United States. Let us explain.

While the danger of loss of wealth due to the holding of bank notes is not imminent...it is better to make a move well in advance of a loss than to make the decision even one day too late. Here's what could happen as the Great Unravelling progresses and how to protect yourself from those eventualities.

Don’t listen to what the official numbers say. Inflation is a big problem already for the U.S. economy - and in an inflationary environment, gold bullion goes up and stock prices go down, because materials cost more and consumers spend less. I’d adjust my portfolio accordingly for the rapid inflation that awaits us.

The March year-over-year inflation rate was 1.51%, which is well below the 3.88% average since the end of the Second World War and 37% below its 10-year moving average.

At the beginning of a hyperinflationary cycle, the stock market virtually always makes substantial gains which is just reflecting the sheer weight of printed money...After the initial enthusiasm the stock market loses its lustre and falls in tandem with the economy into a deflationary depression. The U.S. is now slowly entering such a hyperinflationary phase. Here's what that means for the future price of gold.

It is my contention that the move in precious metals...[from] late 2008 through 2011 was largely a result of the expansion in central bank balance sheets and the perceived threat of runaway inflation. Since 2011, [however,] we’ve seen economic growth improve and inflation rates across the globe subside. As a result, investment banks and market strategists are arguing against owning gold, and making the case that, with a lack of inflation and an improved economy, the need for owning gold as an insurance hedge against inflation and currency debasement is no longer present. I strongly disagree.