Debt & Deficits

The past few years have really put the squeeze on cash-strapped states to find new sources of revenue. This environment has generated a level of tax aggression from certain states, which in turn has resulted in a net loss of revenue instead of the intended gain. Residents have begun voting with their feet, deciding to move out of the state instead of thinning their pocket through unwanted taxation. So which states are chasing away their residents? How does it impact you if you live in one of them? We track migratory patterns through our residency product data, and while some of the states are no-brainers, others may surprise you. [Take a look.] Words: 691

The warnings that the fiscal cliff will cause a recession are delivered as if the government can decide whether or not we have a recession. In fact, the government does not have that power, or we would never have recessions. At the most, the government can influence when, not if, we have a recession. We will most likely undergo a recession when we wean ourselves off the unsustainable deficit spending of the last four years. The choice is not recession or no recession. The choice is recession now or recession later. [Let me explain.] Words: 542

It's the shrunken tax base, not lower tax rates, which is responsible for today's revenue shortfall. A healthier economy and faster jobs growth would do much more to close the deficit than any amount of higher tax rates on the rich. Raising tax rates might weaken the economy further, and that would make it much more difficult to generate higher tax revenues. [The truth of the matter is that] nobody's taxes need to be raised, and nobody's spending needs to be cut—the U.S. economy is already on a glide path to the restoration of fiscal sanity. Washington: are you listening? Words: 1190

Financial repression occurs when governments channel funds into their own sovereign bonds in order to reduce debt levels through mechanisms such as directed lending, caps on interest rates, capital controls, debt monetization, or by other means. The promise of financial repression is that it will hold down government borrowing costs and reduce government debt levels, but critics argue that financial repression merely targets the producers of society, i.e., the middle class, and therefore harms the economy. Let's take a look at financial repression ands its supposed pros and cons. Words: 1486

If Congress addresses the issue by maintaining the current tax and spending policies we will get more of the same economy we have experienced for the past three years (all else being equal). [That being said,] what if Congress goes over the fiscal cliff hit? This blog post is designed to asses the impact. Words: 1362

The term “fiscal cliff” was first coined by Ben Bernanke in early 2012, and it refers to the roughly $718 billion that will be withdrawn in some way, shape or form (4.6% of our nation’s annual economic output) from the economy in 2013. This will occur in the form of tax increases and federal spending cuts. If nothing is done, and all the scheduled tax increases and spending cuts go into effect on January 1, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the economy will contract slightly in 2013. Other estimates (including ours) show a much deeper recession would be likely. Words: 940

The USA continues to decline economically relative to some parts of the world, most notably those in Asia yet we still lead in many areas. Unfortunately being number one is some categories is not a good thing and our level of debt is one of these areas. In fact, our debt burden leads the world. [A look at the charts below illustrates that all too clearly.] Words: 272

What is the "Fiscal Cliff"? What would its ramifications be? Will it tip the U.S. into a recession? What are the critical economic building blocks that would be adversely affected? How best should you position your portfolio for such an eventuality

The video* below is one of the best overviews of what is going on and one of the best explanations of what lies ahead that I have heard. As such, in my opinion, it is A Must Watch!

Over the past few years, policy leaders worldwide have grown accustomed to kicking the can down the road with each step in this ongoing financial crisis making incremental moves rather than cultivating viable long term solutions. More recent attempts seem to have evolved into simply just trying to kick the can out of the driveway. Now we fear there may not be enough firepower left to simply kick the can over. [Having done so, we are left between the proverbial rock and a hard place.] If lawmakers do nothing, by all accounts we are likely to see a recession. Should lawmakers extend the Bush-era tax cuts, you make no progress towards long term deficit reduction, potentially raising the risk and magnitude of a future financial crisis. [Let me discuss this predicament further and how best to invest in such precarious times.] Words: 1602