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Current macro conditions indicate that we are in a sweet spot for equity returns...that global growth is continuing and there is little or no tail risk in the immediate future. It's time to get long equities...but I have this nagging feeling that these market conditions are too good to be true. If you look, there are a number of technical and fundamental clouds on the horizon.

The Baltic Dry Index is often looked at as a leading indicator of the global economy as higher shipping rates indicate stronger demand for shipping and healthier global trade. Year to date, the index is up 234% and is now at its highest level in more than three years (November 2010). This would indicate that the global economy is picking up steam.

According to the charts, the price of silver is not ready to reverse its trend. [In fact,] the monthly chart, and the lower time frames, clearly indicate the trend as down....The probability is high (80%) that the last swing low (in June) to $18 will be exceeded.

There’s no fear anymore - anywhere - and I’m talking about the type of fear that overwhelms investors – and, in turn, the market. The surest indication of this can be found in the following chart.

The "Dogs of the Dow" is a widely-known passive investment strategy that says to simply buy the 10 highest yielding Dow 30 stocks at the start of each year. Below is a look at how 2013's Dogs of the Dow have fared thus far. You'll be pleasantly surprised. Words: 289

Finance executives in Asia see the writing on the wall. They can see that the dollar is in a period of terminal decline, and that the Chinese renminbi is going to take tremendous market share away from the dollar - and they want a big piece of the action. To that end representatives of the Hong Kong Exchange and the Singapore Exchange, THE two dominant financial centers in Asia, have signed an agreement to combine their forces in rolling out more financial products denominated in Chinese renminbi. This has massive consequences for the global financial system - and the future of the U.S. dollar.

We have noted previously that short-sellers have been crushed this year as many of the best performing stocks have also been some of the most heavily shorted stocks. So far in December, however, short-sellers have been getting a bit of a respite. Of the 29 names listed, only 8 are up so far this month. All in all, these 29 stocks have averaged a decline of over 4% this month compared to a loss of just 0.62% for the S&P 1500. It looks as though Christmas has come early for the short-sellers this year. Here's the list of all 29 stocks and how they have performed to date.

Each December we publish a list of investment themes that we feel are critical to the coming year. Below are our expectations for the U.S, Japanese and European stock markets, municipal bonds and gold.

The next black swan is already staring us in the face. It's out of control currency debasement and it's going to be a collapse in the purchasing power of the US dollar. [After all,] does anyone seriously think that we can print trillions of dollars out of thin air for five years and not eventually have something bad happen?

The decline is holding near the last swing low. Will the June low hold? The odds are greater for the low not holding, based on the trend, but there is no way to determine the probability of the June low giving way, for it is possible it will not.