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The plunge in emerging markets that started this year has given us the Fragile Five (Indonesia, South Africa, Brazil, Turkey and India), courtesy of Morgan Stanley, because their big current-account deficits mean they are acutely vulnerable to a sudden exit of foreign capital. The trouble is, it isn't true. The next crisis will start, as did the last one, in one of the developed economies [and this time round] it is likely to come from one of these 5 countries:...

Warren Buffett's favorite indicator - the ratio of the value of U.S. stocks to GDP - is seen by him as a reliable gauge of where the market stands and these days it suggests that all the main indexes are pointing to an imminent 50% crash.

The tables below provide an update of where the current S&P 500 bull market stands in comparison to prior bull markets in terms of duration and magnitude

Investors generally assign higher multiples to many Nasdaq firms, as they expect significant future growth, but if volatility ensues and growth, which is already priced in, isn't realized by these firms a violent reaction to broken promises will ensue just as happened in 2000. For that matter there are a number of similarities between the current level of the Nasdaq index and back then that strongly suggest that the bubble is here. Let me explain why I believe that is the case.

Now marketing himself as a “rogue economist,” Harry Dent is forecasting “gold down to $750 an ounce, housing down 35%, oil down to $10 a barrel, the Dow down to 6,000, [and] a war between inflation and deflation” this year. His swami-like predictions in the past have been truly dreadful but, unlike most of his ilk, Dent has perhaps offered something actionable, if not in the way he intended. Let me explain.

It’s a boom time for doomsayers according to the cover of Barron's and such paranoia-inducing prognostications are only going to get bolder, and more frequent, thanks to the fact that billionaire George Soros' hedge fund firm has increased its bearish bet on stocks – a put position on the S&P 500 Index – by a staggering 154% in the most recent quarter...accounting for 11.13% of his holdings...implying that the stock market is headed for a nasty fall. The efforts of the doom-and-gloom crowd to try and scare you stockless aren't going to succeed this time, though, and here's why.

Over the next couple of months everything should generally rise together but once the dollar puts in an intermediate bottom sometime in March or April, commodities and gold will move down into an intermediate correction as the stock market completes its final blow off top. After the stock market parabola collapses later this summer it will be time to put the pedal to the metal in the commodity markets, and especially the precious metal markets as the Great Inflation begins in earnest.

Canada’s housing market is the most expensive in the world - 60% overvalued by historical standards - and one simple reason explains it.

Do you think the USD is still on top? What makes a currency strong isn’t necessarily what makes it popular or valuable, as you’re about to read.

Both the short and intermediate term outlook for gold and silver stocks continues to be very positive. Historical analysis shows that GDX & GDXJ could rebound 100% and over 150% respectively by the end of this year. Both forecasts would be below the average of the one year rebounds following the 2005 and 2008 bottoms.