Investing

Here’s some perspective on the potential value of the U.S. equity market using Warren Buffett's favorite valuation metric - total stock market capitalization relative to GDP.

Markets around the globe are all facing key resistance levels at the same time. Can they pull a “Great Escape” and bust through? Yes they can and if they do, it would be very bullish for equity markets around the world [and if they don't, then watch out below!].

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a fabricated number that has little relation to the actual average performance of the stock market as a whole. For sure, it is not industrial in nature, and by no means is it an average. It's like creating an all-star team of the very best-performing companies and broadcasting to the world that this is the average of all companies out there.

Current macro conditions indicate that we are in a sweet spot for equity returns...that global growth is continuing and there is little or no tail risk in the immediate future. It's time to get long equities...but I have this nagging feeling that these market conditions are too good to be true. If you look, there are a number of technical and fundamental clouds on the horizon.

There’s no fear anymore - anywhere - and I’m talking about the type of fear that overwhelms investors – and, in turn, the market. The surest indication of this can be found in the following chart.

The "Dogs of the Dow" is a widely-known passive investment strategy that says to simply buy the 10 highest yielding Dow 30 stocks at the start of each year. Below is a look at how 2013's Dogs of the Dow have fared thus far. You'll be pleasantly surprised. Words: 289

We have noted previously that short-sellers have been crushed this year as many of the best performing stocks have also been some of the most heavily shorted stocks. So far in December, however, short-sellers have been getting a bit of a respite. Of the 29 names listed, only 8 are up so far this month. All in all, these 29 stocks have averaged a decline of over 4% this month compared to a loss of just 0.62% for the S&P 1500. It looks as though Christmas has come early for the short-sellers this year. Here's the list of all 29 stocks and how they have performed to date.

Each December we publish a list of investment themes that we feel are critical to the coming year. Below are our expectations for the U.S, Japanese and European stock markets, municipal bonds and gold.

The stock market is likely to experience a 4-year overall market loss of -25%, followed by positive 9% average annual total returns for the S&P 500 over the subsequent 6-year period, which would compound to produce a 10-year total return averaging 2.3%.

Royalty and streaming companies are not as safe as owning bullion intelligently stored, but they’re safer than the typical miner, with considerable upside margin over metals prices if things turn around from here.