Monday , 5 December 2022


S&P 500 is 45% Overvalued According to Reversion to Mean Analysis!

Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? Without a crystal ball, we simply don't know. One thing we can do is examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of possibilities [so let's do just that by looking at charts of the inflation-adjusted secular highs and lows and regressions to trend of the S&P 500 from 1871 to the present so we can make some sense of it all]. Words: 682

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Update: These 113 Analysts Believe Gold Will Go Parabolic to $3,000 or More! (+10K Views)

More and more economists, analysts and financial writers, 122 in fact, have taken the bold step of projecting the price at which gold will achieve its parabolic peak with 6 individuals claiming that the peak price will be realized sometime in 2011. Some have adjusted their previous prognostications higher given gold's strong advance again in 2010 while others have jumped aboard what has become a bandwagon of optimism. The majority (84) maintain that $5,000 or more for gold is possible. Words: 826

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Dow Rebound From Last March 3rd Best on Record… But Are We Due For An Even Lower Low Soon?

[An analysis of the] 15 Dow recoveries since the origin of this legendary index in 1896 (excluding the Crash of 1929 which was an outlier), adjusted for inflation/deflation shows, in the chart below, that the current 470 day recovery (at time of writing) since its low in March 2009 is the 3rd best compared to all the other recoveries over the same period. That being said are we in for another one or two lows before the recovery takes off for good?] Words: 499

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Is the Stock Market Over-priced? These Charts Provide Some Insight (+2K Views)

Secular stock market declines have ranged in length from over 19 years to as few as 3 [and] the current decline is now in its 10th year. Every time the P/E10 has fallen from the top to the 2nd quintile [as it has done recently], it has ultimately declined to the 1st quintile and bottomed in single digits. Based on the latest 10-year earnings average, to reach a P/E10 in the high single digits would require [either] an S&P 500 price decline below 540 [or] for corporate earnings to make a strong and prolonged surge. [Which is it going to be and, if it is the former, when might it occur? Only time will tell! Let me explain.] Words: 1338

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Goldrunner: Has Gold Topped Out? Nope, You Ain't Seen Nothing, Yet!

A Gold Bull Market is much like a bucking bronco in the Old West - constantly trying to buck investors out of the saddle - as many in the Precious Metals universe are calling an intermediate-term top for Gold. Some are even suggesting that we have seen the final top in the Historic Gold Bull. We have a completely different view maintaining that we are very close to the juncture where Gold starts another rip higher into May or June. Let me explain. Words: 908

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Beware: The Dow 30’s Performance is Being Manipulated! (+2K Views)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index – the oldest stock exchange in the U.S. and most influential in the world – consists of 30 companies and has an extremely interesting and distressing history regarding its beginnings, transformation and structural development which has all the trappings of what is commonly referred to as pyramid or Ponzi scheme. Words: 1233

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