Economy

None of the three different statistical measures of financial stress released this week suggest any conditions in the financial markets that would indicate that the U.S. economy is in a recession already, and none of them are exhibiting any upward trends that would point to a pending recession. In fact, all three stress measures have been trending downward through 2012, indicating that there is less financial stress now than at the beginning of the year. [Take a look at what each has to say and judge for yourself.] Words: 571

The election is now behind us and I pray our elected officials can come together and make quality decisions to move this country forward in a positive direction. [That being said, how the U.S. Dollar Index reacts over the short term] is going to be very important for portfolio construction in the weeks and months ahead! [Let's take a look at what the following charts say on the subject.] Words: 225

The public's estimates and predictions of inflation are significantly, and systematically, related to the demographic characteristics of the respondents...[and] even after we hold constant income, age, education, race, and marital status...women in our survey tended to think inflation was 1.9 percentage points higher than men. [There are more interesting findings, so read on.] Words: 987

The USA continues to decline economically relative to some parts of the world, most notably those in Asia yet we still lead in many areas. Unfortunately being number one is some categories is not a good thing and our level of debt is one of these areas. In fact, our debt burden leads the world. [A look at the charts below illustrates that all too clearly.] Words: 272

The Legatum Prosperity Index survey, as shown in the following table, ranks countries on eight different attributes, and then consolidates those attributes into an 'overall ranking'. The report says that the U.S. has fallen out of the top 10 (to #12) in the 'most prosperous country ranking' increasing doubts about the health of its economy and ability of its politicians. Read the balance of the article to see where your country is ranked overall and in each of the 8 different categories. Words: 520

The US Recession Probabilities Index is currently at a level that has ALWAYS been followed by a recession. Interestingly, however, I don’t see recession signals in the internal indicators that I follow and which have been right for a long time now so this clearly puts that opinion in the “this time is different” category - or does it? Words: 255

The Global Economy is on the brink of a recession with 58% of 29 OECD countries experiencing business cycle contractions [although] the U.S. seems to be plodding along despite woes outside her borders . Whilst global recession is certainly an alarm bell for the U.S economy, it is just that – a shot across the bows and not a direct hit. [As such,] there is no reason to hit any panic buttons...[yet other than] to monitor the U.S. recession models ever more closely for any signs of weakness. [Let me explain why this is the case.] Words: 601

What is the "Fiscal Cliff"? What would its ramifications be? Will it tip the U.S. into a recession? What are the critical economic building blocks that would be adversely affected? How best should you position your portfolio for such an eventuality

It is relatively easy to predict further commodity price inflation as a result of the massive money printing going on worldwide and that hard assets, not paper assets, will help protect purchasing power but it is much more difficult to project where else this money printing leads and to what extent a crash is inevitable. What is the endgame? Will it be another financial crash such as in 2008 or will it be a more destructive financial and economic crash that causes a severe but temporary disruption in the delivery of goods and services? Words: 1470

The video* below is one of the best overviews of what is going on and one of the best explanations of what lies ahead that I have heard. As such, in my opinion, it is A Must Watch!