Economy

Politicians foolishly believe they can bend the laws of nature. They are fools for trying. Sadly, the pain and suffering that will be incurred will be borne by the millions of citizens dependent on markets and the economy. The economy cannot recover without a complete cleansing of the excesses that have built up over the last half century plus. [This article spells out why that is the case.] Words: 710

[While] I am not a prepper in the traditional sense of stockpiling food, guns and the like, I have always considered myself a financial prepper...For anyone not familiar with how dicey matters are becoming, [however,] I suggest they read the 50 questions below. Words: 1323

The U.S. debt situation when broken down to one of family statistics really seems absurd. Yet it's true. It's a slow motion train wreck that can be seen coming miles away but which, like deer paralyzed in the headlights, everyone is unwilling to face up to and to take any meaningful corrective action - and it will be the downfall of them all. Words: 550

We know that state-run central banks ALWAYS try to inflate their way out of debt [because, quite] simply, it's the easiest way to make debt go away....Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner might call their inflationary measures by a different name - like quantitative easing - but the effect is the same [and,] make no mistake [about it,] these policies will destroy lives [on one hand, and make those in the know a small fortune on the other. This article explains the options].

[Mr. Speaker, Mr. Vice President, Members of Congress, distinguished guests, and fellow Americans] I would like to [take this opportunity to] inform you about the state of the union. Before I begin, however, I would ask that [the millions of Americans listening to me on T.V., on the internet and on the radio] take a moment to make sure the elderly, weak or infirm in your household are sitting down. In fact, just make sure everyone is sitting down and adequately restrained [because] what I'm going to tell you is the cold, hard, ugly truth... The state of your union is worse than it has been since 1861, and it's only going to get worse... much worse. Let me break down the situation for you in the simplest terms possible. Words: 1689

Whenever the BLS posts their monthly CPI there's always the same response from critics that the index is flawed. That's fine. I think a healthy dose of skepticism regarding government data is perfectly good. So let's take a look at some independent gauges to see where prices are.

The United States is not going to become energy independent because of tight oil. Period. Reports to the contrary are an illusion of U.S. energy independence based on unrealistic assumptions and projections about the long-term potential of oil production from tight formations like the Bakken Shale in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas. There are several compelling reasons for this [as outlined below]. Words: 575

We have been hearing a lot about escaping the fiscal cliff, but our problem isn’t solved. The fixes to date have been partial and temporary. There are many painful decisions ahead. Based on recent research and my analysis of the situation, civilization is in the early stage of the Crisis phase (state breakdown) and the U.S. will most likely enter a severe recession by the end of 2013. [Below is my rationale.] Words: 2979; Charts: 8

Risk is inevitably mispriced when unprecedented intervention suppresses risk [and, as such, the] policies that appear to have been successful for the past four years may continue to appear successful for a year or two longer but that very success comes at a steep, and as yet unpaid, price in suppressed systemic risk, cost, and consequence. [This article identifies 8] key dynamics that will continue to play out over the next two to three years [and an] understanding of the eventual consequence of such influential trends - that risk is inevitably mispriced when unprecedented intervention suppresses risk. Words: 1299

This article is probably the most exhaustive and challenging piece I have written. It was worth the effort because understanding the business cycle is crucial to making great investment decisions. To get the full benefit, I urge readers to spend some time reading the 3 background links and watching the 8 videos. Words: 1279; Videos: 8; Charts: 2; Table: 1