Economy

Fearing that the flow of nourishing mother milk from the Fed could dry up, a resolutely unweaned Wall Street threw a hissy fit and the dummy out of the pram last Thursday. The end of QE is seen as the beginning of the end of super-easy policy and potentially the first towards normalization. There is only one problem: it won’t happen. Here's why.

Last Wednesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke promised to end his bond-buying addiction - cold turkey - in mid-2014. That is, as long as the economy is strong enough. As a result, investor fortitude was pushed to the brink. Stocks sold off hard, sending the S&P 500 Index down 1.4%. Before you head for the exits, too, let's get a little perspective.

The return of the U.S. dollar - and the secular outperformance of the U.S. dollar vs. the rest of the world - is a HUGE, huge trend. HUGE.

Jim Sinclair is as good a source of the market fundamentals as anybody out there. Some of his comments can be a bit confusing, though, but that usually is the result of his attempt to economize words. I don’t intend to be negative, but sometimes Jim leaves things vague enough that it can be interpreted in more than one way. Let’s take a look at some important comments that Jim has made recently.

Stocks are up. Bonds are expensive. Dollar cash is unlikely to preserve purchasing power in an environment of negative real rates. Diversifying to a basket of hard currencies might help to mitigate some of the risks out there. It clearly adds currency risk but in an environment where there may not be such a thing as a risk free asset, it might be a risk worth pursuing...

The U.S. government is in what is known as a "debt death spiral". They must borrow money to repay prior debts. It is as if they are using their Visa Card to make an American Express payment. The rate of new debt additions dwarf any rate of growth the economy can possibly achieve. The end is certain, only its timing is unknown, and, once interest rates begin to rise, and they will, it's game over.

The annual survey American Community Survey by the Census Bureau collects much more detailed information than the decennial census, [and the data from the latest survey is depicted in maps, of which 5 are provided here on America's economic divide and] are relevant for thinking about communities most in need of investment.

[To repeat,] Canada's concentrated bet on real estate and construction, while creating jobs in the short term, is putting Canadian economy at greater risk in the future [and, with it unlikely that] Canadian households will significantly increase disposable income in the near future, any deleveraging could therefore prove to be quite painful.

The rich are getting richer and that’s good news for everyone. I’ll tell you why in a minute. First, let’s look at where the millionaires are — and where their number are growing the fastest.

France continues to pose the biggest near-term risk to the euro area's economic recovery. Why France some may ask? [Here's why.]