Economy

The U.S. already looks more and more like a Third World country.

The frequency of financial crises and recessions is quite high: on average, there is one crisis every 58 months (using data from the US National Bureau of Economic Research). In other words, statistically speaking, we should expect the beginning of the next crisis in April 2015, which would end by March 2016. There are 8 possible scenarios that could cause the next crisis. Let's take a look at each.

[Charts have the ability to clearly illustrate various situations and no 2 could be more so than the following charts] on the incredible divergence in the U.S. economy and the European economy as it related to the extent of unemployment and industrial production in each region. Take a look. It's truly amazing - truly tragic.

Despite the European Central Bank's periodic assurances to the contrary, Europe is well on its way to a lost economic decade and if European policymakers cannot shake themselves out of their present state of complacency we should brace ourselves for very rough going in the global financial markets when the U.S. Federal Reserve starts the process of normalizing interest rates.

I believe that what is happening in Ferguson is just a preview of what is coming to America in the years ahead and much of the anger and frustration that is bubbling just under the surface in our communities has an economic element to it. Let me explain.

A financial train wreck is coming! When does it hit the wall? The answer to that question is it's not very far down the road, and I can promise you that is when all hell is going to break loose. [Let me explain why that is the case.]

The Fed has just released a 200 page study on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2013 that reveals that 52% of the respondents to the survey said they did not have a mere $400 in savings for an unexpected emergency. That suggests to me that over half the county is on a paycheck-to-paycheck struggle. Below are my key findings from the survey presented in a concise easy to understand format.

The U.S. $1 dollar bill has been redesigned many time since first being issued back in 1862. What we almost exclusively use today is the version designed in 1963. The following extremely informative infographic explains what all the different symbols on the dollar mean, who is on the front & back of all the U.S. currencies currently in use and the $500, $1,000, $10,000 and $100,000 (yes, $100,000!) bills that are no longer in production.

The financial markets are drastically over-capitalizing earnings and over-valuing all asset classes so, as the Fed and its central bank confederates around the world increasingly run out of excuses for extending the radical monetary experiments of the present era, even the gamblers will come to recognize who is really the Wile E Coyote in the piece. Then they will panic.

With all of the things in the world to worry about, how much should we worry about a sudden sharp increase in UST yields? The short answer is not much and here is why.