Economy

The claim that, in normal times, energy prices have a direct influence on long-term inflation expectations is puzzling, as it seems to imply that monetary policy is not able to offset price shocks even five or ten years down the road. If confirmed, it could have significant implications on how inflation dynamics are forecast. Hence, we believe that the claim warrants further scrutiny.

The dominating role that the U.S. has had with respect to patent applications has been challenged in recent years. Is China becoming the new global leader in innovation?

The math is simple. The more a country increases its debt to simply stay afloat, the more like the increasing debt will cause a tightening of credit. The next step is a burst bubble and economic crisis. This is what happened in 1929 and in 2007, and it’s happening now.

Today’s infographic comes to us from VoucherCloud, and it...looks at the top export of every country in the world. It’s a simple but telling way to see what countries are “good” at producing.

Pushing the big problems into the future appears to have been the working strategy for both the Fed and recent Administrations, yet the U.S. dollar and the budget deficit do matter, and the future is at hand. The day of ultimate financial reckoning has arrived, and it is playing out. Words: 1096

We live with a DEBT economic model which is dysfunctional. It has produced mountains of unpayable DEBT and continuing national deficits with no options for any real repayment. It is a one-way street with a cul-de-sac at the end - and we have reached the end of this one-way street as of 2018.

The qualitative relationship between the growth in the Total Money Supply, credit crises, and recessions has been remarkably clear since 1978 and, as such, the current suppression of the Total Money Supply growth rate, if it is sustained for the rest of the year, portends another credit crisis and housing bust, followed by an economic recession for the U.S. economy.

Investors got lulled into a state of inflation complacency [with] persistently low official inflation rates in recent years that depressed bond yields along with risk premiums on all financial assets - but that’s changing in 2018. Five drivers of higher inflation rates are now starting to kick in.

Recent economic data has bond yields jumping a little bit on the worry of higher future inflation. According to many this is the main concern behind the recent volatility in stock and bond markets so let’s see if we can’t put some of this data in perspective so we can better understand the risks to our portfolios.

This looks like an excellent point to short the dollar, which is expected to drop and probably accelerate away to the downside. This should provide a boost for the Precious Metals sector which...will increasingly be seen as a safe haven.