Housing

When it comes to reckless money creation, China is the king. Over the past five years Chinese bank assets have been fueled by the greatest private debt binge that the world has ever seen. Unfortunately for China (and for the rest of us), there are lots of signs that the gigantic debt bubble in China is about to burst, and when that does happen the entire world is going to feel the pain. Let me explain.

Canada’s housing market is the most expensive in the world - 60% overvalued by historical standards - and one simple reason explains it.

The Canadian housing market is headed for a significant bust, in my view. It's going to be a repeat of the 2008 mortgage bubble deflation. Only it's happening to the north. People will lose a lot of money but those who understand and are properly positioned may gain fortunes.

All of this talk about a "bright future" for real estate is just a bunch of nonsense. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is starting to rise aggressively again and, because mortgage rates tend to follow such increases, mortgage rates are going up. As monthly payments go up less people will be able to afford to buy homes at current prices and this will force home prices down. As such, another great real estate crash is inevitable. Let me explain further. Words: 995 ; Charts: 1

Today, I'm dishing on the unbelievable rebound in residential real estate, pesky rumors about the dollar's demise and a resurgent U.S. stock market. So let's get to it.

If I had to guess, I would say that a majority of people in the country still view the housing market in a negative light. They note: •the still-large overhang of foreclosed properties, •the still-low rate of new housing starts, and •the still-depressed level of housing prices in many parts of the country but that is looking at the market from a static viewpoint. There have been some very important improvements in the housing market over the past 18 months...that have all the makings of a clear turnaround that is underway and likely to continue. [Let me explain.] Words: 388

For the past few months, existing home sales levels have been weaker than expected. The focus, however, should not be on the weakness of the headline numbers. In actuality, the softening in existing home sales is showcasing the potential for acceleration in new home sales. [Let me expain.] Words: 1205

The Canadian ratio of debt to income hit 163.4% in the second quarter, up from 161.7% at the end of last year, according to figures released Monday by Statistics Canada. That’s the highest ratio of debt to income ever recorded in Canada, and more inflated than the levels witnessed in the U.S. and Britain before their housing market collapses in the mid-2000s. Words: 625

With recent numbers positive for housing realtors, politicians, and others with vested interests, are quick to claim we are on our way back - but are such numbers really meaningful and sustainable? Many more objective analysts, however, are less sure or disagree with this conclusion that the bottom has been reached yet. Here's what some of them have to say. Words: 1377

According to the Case-Shiller 10-City index Canadian house prices only appreciated by 84% between 1990 and 2006 compared to 181% in the U.S.. However, as U.S. prices plunged by almost 33% between the peak in April 2006 and the trough in May 2009, the chart below shows that Canadian home prices continued to rise, driven by very low interest rates and relatively benign unemployment. By July 2012, they had reached similar heights as U.S. prices before their decline and fall. I believe that house prices and consumer debt levels are overextended in Canada and that a "Minsky-moment" may be developing in Canadian credit markets. [Let me explain why I have come to that conclusion.] Words: 1892