Economic Overviews

Officially, the crisis is over. Everyone says so. Central bankers and Treasury officials have been congratulating themselves. It’s been a year now since the end of the world didn’t happen. These fellows take credit for it. Claptrap! Balderdash! Flimflam! Words: 669

This is NOT a business cycle: this is a one-time reversal of twenty years of inflation of the household balance sheet. An aging population needs a 10% savings rate (at least) to meet minimum funding requirements for the biggest retirement wave in US history but, instead, with 17% effective unemployment, many Americans are dis-saving. Words: 332

Of the $200+ trillion in derivatives on US banks’ balance sheets, 85% are based on interest rates and for that reason I cannot take any of the Fed’s mumblings about raising interest rates seriously at all. Remember, most if not all, of the bailout money has gone to US banks in order to help them raise capital. So why would the Fed make a move that could potentially destroy these firms’ equity and essentially undoing all of its previous efforts? That being said I still see derivatives as a trillion dollar ticking time bomb with a short fuse. Words: 506