Economic Overviews

Our economy – and economic disparity – can never be fixed until we deal with the debt - and we will never deal with the debt without dramatic reforms to stop underlying dysfunction in government & endemic wasteful spending. Furthermore, we cannot grow our way out of the debt. No credible forecast suggests that future rates of growth for the U.S. economy will be sufficient to close these deficits without significant changes to our fiscal policies. Here are 8 reforms that need to be addressed if we are to have any hope of ever turning things around. I believe they would propel the Dow Jones to 20,000 and beyond. Words: 689

The greatest risk to the United States economy right now is a recession triggered by the European financial crisis. [Below is a chart that clearly depicts each of the 50 states exports to Europe as a % of GDP. You will be surprised at what it reveals. Take a look.] Words: 235

Countries differ greatly in the levels and pattern of wealth holdings...In this article...we highlight those of Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. [Take a look at the results of our extensive research.] Words: 1314

If you're inclined to sit on the fence these days in the delicate art of anticipating the next phase of the business cycle, you'll get no argument from the latest update on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a monster index of indexes that encompasses 85 measures of U.S. economic activity. This benchmark has weakened this year but it's still not flashing a formal prediction of economic contraction...[Let me explain.] Words: 255

Economic inflection points are seldom obvious but if we take the time to analyze all the data, there are at least five indicators that suggest another U.S. recession is not imminent. [Take a look.] Words: 920

It is widely accepted that Greece is insolvent even though the higher echelons of euro-zone politics still hesitate to use the term, and default swap prices...give virtually 100% odds that Greece will default. The handling of the issue has heightened the perception of risk for other problem countries of the euro zone...such that investors now give 60% odds of default by Portugal...and 30%-plus odds for default by Italy... Even France, with its S&P AAA rating, is now rated more likely to default than Brazil! [In addition, the U.S. is facing the liklihood of a fiscal policy impasse in Congress that could well lead to a recession. As such, as we see it, the risk of contagion in the financial system around the world has risen dramatically. We substantiate our contentions below.] Words:1612

Europe is on the verge of a collapse, and unless something gets done relatively soon, (perhaps as soon as the next few weeks), Europe is likely to experience their own 2008 scenario. The U.S. and Chinese economies are heavily dependent on exporting goods to Europe, and with Eurozone growth slowing as a result of the potential default in Greece, and then on to the rest of the PIIGS, a "Great Depression-like scenario" could very well play out. [In fact,] George Soros thinks we are headed towards another Great Depression and, you know what, he's right! What do you think? Is George Soros right? Are we headed for another depression? Words: 530

The widespread stagnation in wages, rather than the level of unemployment, may offer a better explanation for the failure of economic growth to accelerate two years after the end of the recession. Workers’ ability to negotiate higher earnings won’t return until the job market strengthens, and flagging confidence has raised the risk that consumers may retrench. [Let us explain.] Words: 1018

Will global financial markets reach a breaking point during the month of October? Right now there are all kinds of signs that the financial world is about to experience a nervous breakdown. Massive amounts of investor money is being pulled out of the stock market and mammoth bets are being made against the S&P 500 in October. The European debt crisis continues to grow even worse and weird financial moves are being made all over the globe. Does all of this unusual activity indicate that something big is about to happen? Let's hope not - but historically, the biggest stock market crashes have tended to happen in the fall. So are we on the verge of a "Black October"? Words: 1200

Canada's size, political structure, and culture will enable it to – properly governed – be more resilient to world economic problems than any other developed country. [For one thing] we don't have the extent of political polarization that... [is currently the case] in Washington...and now exacerbated to new levels in these difficult economic times – and that will, in my view, cause the U.S. to continue down an increasingly rocky economic road. [Below I put forth Canada's economic advantages and disadvantages.] Words:1026