Economic Overviews

The corrosive nature of politics and government has destroyed the economy and the moral fiber of citizens. These issues are not insurmountable, but they are very close to being so. Their ramifications are potentially existential in nature: the average length of life, the very time span or cycle of a nation has been proven in history to be approximately 250 years. Since the USA was born in 1776 this says we have about 14 years of life remaining for America. The way things are going we don’t doubt it. [Let me explain.] Words: 768

Optimism has seized stock markets in the past month on the back of better economic data in the United States and a late-summer lull in the euro crisis. Market volatility is at its lowest level in years. [That being said, however,] BofA's top economist Ethan Harris...thinks the U.S. economy is "in the eye of the storm" right now. Below is what Harris sees on the horizon. Words: 363

We all know that high debt is a growth killer and, at the moment, the U.S. has a budget deficit of about $1 trillion. That's a very big number...The question is, at what point do countries have to deal with high debt levels? How high do debt levels have to be before one has to deal with the problem by lowering budget deficits? Also, what are the consequences of such debt and budget reductions? Words: 500

This presentation* by David Rosenberg, comes courtesy of Joe Weisenthal (www.businessinsider.com). I’ve disagreed with Rosenberg on the recession call in the USA for a long time now, but we’re on the same page about a lot of the macro trends. Here are three pertinent trends that are worth highlighting from the presentation. Words: 555

For over two years now, I've been warning that the 2008 Crash was just a warm up and that the REAL Crisis would occur when the stock market realized that the Central Banks, lead by the US Federal Reserve could NOT actually hold the financial system together. Well, the Crisis I've been warning about is here. [Let me explain.] Words: 306

There are several variations of Long Wave theory, but the most famous is based on the work of Nicolai Kondratieff, a Russian economist who gave the various stages seasonal names, with summer and autumn denoting the peak of financial speculation and winter the aftermath of the resulting crash. The conditions for a global catastrophic failure are in place. Snow (in the form of trillions of new dollars and euros) is falling. There’s no way to know which dollar (or which external event) will start the avalanche, but without doubt something will. [Let me expand on why I hold that view.] Words: 888

In order to argue that we will not see a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, it is not enough to claim that a) some expert or institution has predicted that Chinese growth will not slowdown, b)that China has enough savings in its coffers to bail itself out of a crisis or c) that Beijing leaders cannot tolerate growth below 8%, so of course growth will not drop below 8%. As greater evidence for the bear camp surfaces, China bulls need stronger justifications for their positions or risk losing credibility. [In fact, they need precise answers to 3 questions put forth in this lengthy but extremely insightful (dare I say, absolute best, article on the China sydrome to have ever been written!) article. Words: 4130

Every strong economy in the world is getting weaker at the same time, and when you look around the world, it's hard to see an emergency booster engine lying in wait. [In fact,] the odds of a recession are climbing everywhere and the expectations for growth are falling everywhere. [That being said, might the U.S. be that engine of growth in that] residential investment finally seems ready to climb out of its five year hole and improve the earnings and spirits of the world's largest national engine of consumption? [Let's look at the graphs of the global growth index of a number of countries and a graph of the IMF's forecast for GDP growth worldwide for a better understanding of how serious the situation really is and what could possibly provide a boost to the world economy in the coming year.] Words: 425

October has a well-deserved reputation of being a volatile month for the market. Historically, it is the second-worst performing month after September, and it has had its share of market meltdowns (1929, 1987). I don't foresee anything that dramatic this October after the long rally. However, I think it is going to be a challenging month for investors for a variety of reasons. [Below are 10 reasons to be wary this October in particular.] Words: 498

The analysis of current Fed policy has included the usual parade of mistaken pundits [whose views have] been obscured by... an agenda based upon their politics or their business models [and then there]...are the correct answers which are pretty obvious to anyone with any training in economics. Here is that reality. Words: 734