Economic Overviews

Economic activity in Venezuela will fall 10% in 2016 – not 8% as previously stated - according to the IMF. General Mills, Bridgestone, Coca-Cola, Kimberly-Clark, Aeromexico, Lufthansa and LATAM Airlines have all suspended operations there in the past year. Upcoming debt payments are significant, and the country will most likely default as early as November of this year and no later than April of next year. International reserves are simply insufficient at a time when oil production declines and the economy contracts. Two questions in the air: Will China save Venezuela? Will it demand Maduro step down?

Investors globally have never faced risk of the magnitude that the we are now exposed to but, sadly, very few are aware of the unprecedented risks the world is facing. For the ones who understand risk and take the right decisions, it will “lead to fortune”. Only very few will choose that route, though. Instead most investors will continue to...

At the end of June, the BIS, or the central bank for central banks, produced its annual report, which is a must-read for investors interested in the global economy, macroeconomics, as well as gold, whose price is to a large extent shaped by macroeconomic factors. What does the report imply for the precious metals market?

It’s somewhat understandable - but highly regrettable - that Venezuela is parting with its gold so readily in the midst of this economic turmoil. Gold has traditionally been a source of security for countries looking to hedge against currency volatility; and heaven knows Venezuela has had more than its share of that. The bottom line? They’re giving up the only security they have left.

The following timeline of developments in China since last summer’s equity market crash should be a handy tool for businesses around the world trying to figure out what’s next.

The economy and, more importantly, inflation really need to tank hard to justify current bond prices and economic growth, and earnings really need to soar to truly justify current stock market valuations. It's not hard to imagine a scenario in which both could be very wrong.

The Gold/Copper price ratio is a way to examine the state of the economy through the relative performance of the "pro-growth" copper price and the "anti-growth" gold price. This filters out the distorting effect of currency inflation/deflation, and allows us to focus only on gold and copper themselves. In 2016 we have a historically high Gold/Copper ratio, the likes of which we have only seen before in the Great Depression, the "stagflation" of the 1970s, and the 2008 Great Recession. This is a clear sign of a slowing, weakening global economy. Below are the details.

Alan Greenspan, the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve has warned that Brexit was a “terrible outcome in all respects” and that we are in the “early days of a crisis.”

Brexit is a return to inefficiency and trade wars and will spike inflation throughout the whole world. It will trigger a rise in unemployment mainly in Europe, but will also hurt the rest of the world through contagion. [Let me explain further.]

Brexit could be the beginning of a brave new world, in which trade becomes freer and business becomes less burdened by taxes and regulations. The only politician here who is talking about such "radical" ideas is Trump, but he is gaining traction, as did the "leavers" in the UK. There is room for hope.