Monday , 6 December 2021

Current Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index

Each day, we analyze emotions and sentiments from different sources and crunch them into one simple number: The Fear & Greed Index for Bitcoin and other large cryptocurrencies.
This post by Lorimer Wilson, Managing Editor of munKNEE.com is an edited ([ ]) and abridged (…) version of an article by Alternative.me for the sake of clarity and length to ensure a fast and easy read.
Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index
<img src=”https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index.png” alt=”Latest Crypto Fear & Greed Index” />

Why Measure Fear and Greed?

The crypto market behaviour is very emotional. People tend to get greedy when the market is rising which results in FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). Also, people often sell their coins in irrational reaction of seeing red numbers. With our Fear and Greed Index, we try to save you from your own emotional overreactions. There are two simple assumptions:

  • Extreme fear can be a sign that investors are too worried. That could be a buying opportunity.
  • When Investors are getting too greedy, that means the market is due for a correction.

Therefore, we analyze the current sentiment of the Bitcoin market and crunch the numbers into a simple meter from 0 to 100. Zero means “Extreme Fear”, while 100 means “Extreme Greed”. See below for further information on our data sources.

Data Sources

We are gathering data from the five following sources. Each data point is valued the same as the day before in order to visualize a meaningful progress in sentiment change of the crypto market…

1. Volatility (25 %)

We’re measuring the current volatility and max. drawdowns of bitcoin and compare it with the corresponding average values of the last 30 days and 90 days. We argue that an unusual rise in volatility is a sign of a fearful market.

2. Market Momentum/Volume (25%)

Also, we’re measuring the current volume and market momentum (again in comparison with the last 30/90 day average values) and put those two values together. Generally, when we see high buying volumes in a positive market on a daily basis, we conclude that the market acts overly greedy / too bullish.

3. Social Media (15%)

While our reddit sentiment analysis is still not in the live index (we’re still experimenting some market-related key words in the text processing algorithm), our twitter analysis is running. There, we gather and count posts on various hashtags for each coin (publicly, we show only those for Bitcoin) and check how fast and how many interactions they receive in certain time frames). A unusual high interaction rate results in a grown public interest in the coin and in our eyes, corresponds to a greedy market behaviour.

4. Dominance (10%)

The dominance of a coin resembles the market cap share of the whole crypto market. Especially for Bitcoin, we think that a rise in Bitcoin dominance is caused by a fear of (and thus a reduction of) too speculative alt-coin investments, since Bitcoin is becoming more and more the safe haven of crypto. On the other side, when Bitcoin dominance shrinks, people are getting more greedy by investing in more risky alt-coins, dreaming of their chance in the next big bull run. By analyzing the dominance for a coin other than Bitcoin, you could argue the other way round, since more interest in an alt-coin may conclude a bullish/greedy behaviour for that specific coin.

5. Trends (10%)

We pull Google Trends data for various Bitcoin related search queries and crunch those numbers, especially the change of search volumes as well as recommended other currently popular searches. For example, if you check Google Trends for “Bitcoin”, you can’t get much information from the search volume. Currently, you can see that there is a +1,550% rise of the query “bitcoin price manipulation“ in the box of related search queries (as of 05/29/2018). This is clearly a sign of fear in the market, and we use that for our index.

 

Surveys (15%) currently paused

Together with strawpoll.com (disclaimer: we own this site, too), quite a large public polling platform, we’re conducting weekly crypto polls and ask people how they see the market. Usually, we’re seeing 2,000 – 3,000 votes on each poll, so we do get a picture of the sentiment of a group of crypto investors. We don’t give those results too much attention, but it was quite useful in the beginning of our studies. You can see some recent results here.

Editor’s Note:  The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article.  Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.

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3. Average of 50 Bitcoin Price Predictions: End of 2021 ($71,445); By 2025 ($249,578) and $5,237,082 By 2030

Find out why 50 industry experts think Bitcoin will be worth US$71,415 by the end of 2021, before rising to US$249,578 by 2025 and why holding till 2030 will be the real payoff.

4. Bitcoin Is Going To $500,000 and the Rationale Is Simple

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8. Bitcoin vs. Gold: Which Is the Better Asset To Own?

Gold and Crypto are both expected to embark on their next bull run and, a disadvantage to owning one asset is often an advantage of owning the other. Therefore, we believe both deserve a place in your portfolio for at least insurance purposes.

9. Bitcoin vs Gold: A Surprising Price Correlation

It would be wise for bitcoin traders to use any kind of hedge that they can find and over the past few months, one such hedge has been, ironically, gold.

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