Some witless pollyannas will say the title of this article is inappropriate. Unfortunately, these hapless souls suffer from excessive greed, rampant euphoria and hyper-complacency. Furthermore, they are ignorant of stock market history and its immutable cycles where only magnitude and duration vary. They foolishly delude themselves into believing that the US Fed has “banned” bear markets and has discovered the “magic elixir” to kill all potential bears while they are still cubs or in hibernation.

The S&P 500 just extended its winning streak to seven straight quarters, and it's reasonable to wonder just how long it can continue...[That being said, however,] investors often enjoy a strong wind at their back in the fourth quarter, based on seasonal patterns and stock market history. Will 2014 be different [or will, as history suggests,] investors find a shiny new quarter during the next three months? [This article looks at these patterns to come to a better understanding of how the markets likely will perform for the balance of 2014.]

Our "Barnyard" analysis from a year ago resulted in 6 out of 8 points indicating that the market would be favorable over the next 6-18 months. That has come true, with the S&P 500 up nearly 20% since then. We expect many will be surprised by the latest Barnyard Forecast which we present below.

In our view, the four primary drivers of market valuations are earnings, dividends, interest rates and inflation, of which two stand out above the others as being the most important. We look at each factor and then conclude with what it means for stocks.

The S&P 500 has rallied for three years in a row, without a significant correction. This puzzles many observers who consider equities to be overvalued. Many experts predicted a correction (or worse) this year - after predicting one last year which has not happened - so how high is the S&P 500 valuation, after all?

No one can outguess the elites' sustainability of power and control over the entire financial system, including their influence over the price of gold, and, as such, this precludes anyone from being able to intelligibly articulate "when" there will be a transition from "down" to "up" in the price of gold and silver. Unfortunately, as things currently stand, the elites continue to win the majority of the battles, and so control the war. Let me explain why that is the case.

Things just took a turn for the worst, and there is no turnaround in sight. Unless and until demand enters the picture, price will continue lower until it finds demand sufficient to effect a change. For right now, there is no demand apparent. What else can be said. This is like watching a car teetering on the edge of the cliff, waiting to see if/when it falls. The trend is down, and that is all you need to know!

In spite of the June 2014 pop [I expect to see]...a dip to below the $1190/oz level at some point between now and the end of the month. Here's why.

Gold has been mired in a descending triangle over the past year or so. From a technical perspective, such triangles are likely to be continuation patterns. Gold fundamentals have recently worsened a bit with the most obvious headwind being the continued strength in the U.S. dollar, but this isn’t the only indicator that has turned more bearish lately. This article is an update of the indicators we follow.

I see various signs that indicate that gold bulls may have to endure one more capitulation to the downside before the next leg of the bull market begins. In what follows I identify what could send the gold price lower and suggest some investment strategies to consider.