Friday , 10 January 2025

Lorimer Wilson

Debunking the Validity of ShadowStats’ Inflation Numbers (+2K Views)

Shadowstats presents what they claim to be the original methodology used by the government to calculate the rate of inflation in the U.S. but Shadowstats' John Williams is not calculating inflation any differently. He is not using the 1980s or 1990s methodology... [Instead,] all he's is doing is taking the CPI data and adding on an arbitrary constant to make it look like inflation is higher!

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True or False: Wars Affect Performance of Stock Markets

It is common for economists to offer a forecast for the stock market yet add a caveat to the effect that "If a war shock or terrorist attack occurs, then I would have to modify my outlook." As such, it would seem logical to assume that...they must have access to a study showing that such events affect the stock market, right? The answer is no, for the same reason that they do not check relationships between interest rates, oil prices or the trade balance and the stock market. The causality just seems too sensible to doubt.

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True or False: Earnings Drive Stock Prices

The belief that earnings drive stock prices powers the bulk of the research on Wall Street but this glaring exception to the idea of a causal relationship between corporate earnings and stock prices challenges that theory. Let me explain.

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