…Combined with the an average Federal Funds Rate of 2.40% over the same period, the probability that the U.S. economy will enter into a national recession at some time in the next twelve months has risen to nearly 7%, or roughly a 1-in-14 chance according to Jonathan Wright‘s 2006 recession prediction model.
The Recession Probability Track visualizes how the odds of an official U.S. recession starting have increased from 2 January 2014 through 9 April 2019.
…If you would like to generate your estimate of the odds of recession using our tool, please do. We created the tool so you never have to wait for us or the Fed! It’s really easy:
- Plug in the most recent data available, or the data that would apply for a future scenario that you would like to consider,
- and compare the result you get in our tool with what we’ve shown in the most recent chart we’ve presented…