Friday , 22 September 2023

7% Likelihood of U.S. Recession Within Next 12 Months

…Combined with the an average Federal Funds Rate of 2.40% over the same period, the probability that the U.S. economy will enter into a national recession at some time in the next twelve months has risen to nearly 7%, or roughly a 1-in-14 chance according to Jonathan Wright‘s 2006 recession prediction model.

The Recession Probability Track visualizes how the odds of an official U.S. recession starting have increased from 2 January 2014 through 9 April 2019.

U.S. Recession Probability Track Starting 2 January 2014, Ending 9 April 2019


…If you would like to generate your estimate of the odds of recession using our tool, please do. We created the tool so you never have to wait for us or the Fed! It’s really easy:

  • Plug in the most recent data available, or the data that would apply for a future scenario that you would like to consider,
  • and compare the result you get in our tool with what we’ve shown in the most recent chart we’ve presented…
Editor’s Note: The above excerpts* from the original article have been edited ([ ]) and abridged (…) for the sake of clarity and brevity. Also note that this complete paragraph must be included in any re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

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(*The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.)