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Our subscription service provides detailed technical analysis of where the price of gold, silver and precious metal stocks are going short term (in the next week or two), intermediate term (within the next 3-6 months) and long term (the ultimate top) in each stage of their respective bull runs. This service comes with detailed charting based on conventional technical analysis and our proprietary fractal analysis based on the ’70s. Below are some of our latest comments and rationale for expected price movements in gold without illustative charts which are only available to subscribers. Words: 1000
So says Goldrunner
Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), has edited the article below for length and clarity – see Editor’s Note at the bottom of the page. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
Below are snippets of what Goldrunner had to say in a recent mailing to subscribers.
Gold has little resistance above $1,800, except for the old top high around $1,920 and weaker angled resistance lines above that, thus we would expect gold to “chop higher” from around $2,050 up to the top of the log channel around $2,400 before a break-out above that line which would see Gold go into parabolic “free-rise.”
1. On the weekly chart Gold has bottomed at the RSI 50 line like so many times over the last few years.
2. On the daily chart we can see that Gold retraced the first rise off of the bottom down to the 61.8 fib line and rebounded sharply off of that bottom. We still expect Gold to move back to, and through, the recent highs fairly quickly.
We are left with a cup formation that measures from $1,525 up to $1,800- a $275 cup height thus, a break-out of that cup would target gold around $2,075 on the next run upward. My target has been to $2,050 for the next run. We don’t expect the correction at that point to be too steep or too long in terms of time, though traders will always come in to sell.
3. On the daily chart the recent correction in Gold did not make it all the way down to test the top blue fan-line which is a bullish sign. We can see that good volume came in on this bottom and subsequent sharp rebound – bullish.
- We can see the exponential moving averages starting to align with each other. A further rise by Gold will see all of the EMA lines turn up together.
- The Stochastic indicator moving above 80 for 3 or 4 days will cause the ADX line to turn up, supporting the MACD which has already turned up to signal a momentum move upward as it did when Gold ran up to $1,800.
- The sharp rise above the 50 line by the Daily RSI indicates big-time strength, just like it did at the start of the sharp run higher back in early July of 2011.
4. On the weekly chart we can see that:
- the RSI bottomed at the 50 line in bullish form at the RSI channel bottom,
- the price rose last week in a bullish engulfing pattern taking out the red candlestick of the week before, much like the bottom in early July, 2011,
- the weekly volume bar rose sharply as Gold reversed higher to form a break-out in volume with the bullish engulfing pattern, thus supporting and confirming the price rise and
- the failure of price to correct all the way back down to the top blue fan-line is a sign of strength/ outperformance.
5. On the weekly log chart of angled support and resistance lines we show that:
- we expect Gold to rise back up to the recent highs faster than it corrected due to the strong fundamentals at hand. In fact,
- we expect Gold to rise a bit higher than the recent highs, initially, then to correct a bit before breaking up to around $2,050; probably before year-end.
6. On the weekly chart of Gold showing the Keltner Channel in black we can see that:
- Gold has consistently bottomed at the middle Keltner line on the Gold Bull moves from 2009 up into late mid-2011. This bottom at the middle Keltner line is therefore Bullish.
The recent move up to $1,800 hit the top Keltner envelope and turned it up. The next move up generally sees price move up through the top Keltner envelope as Gold moves higher. As the top Keltner line starts to roll upward, the price rises in Gold tend to accelerate to the upside.
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7. The long-term weekly chart of Gold is still very bullish.
Our “Mother of All Cups Chart” shows that this recent rise and correction in Gold still fits with an accelerated rise going into 2013 like Gold did in 1979. The next resistance line lies up around $2,025. A move up, and break through, that line would coincide with the top of the log channel for this current Gold Bull- a bit above $2,400.
A parabolic move in Gold like in 1979 that would break out of the log channel would likely pass through a big air gap on the chart all the way up to a level that would coincide with a “double of the log channel” as we saw back in 1979. We have previously put that potential parabolic target up around $3,900 at a fib level yet our latest analysis suggests that it would come in higher, up around Alf’s price targets ($4,500). I think the fundamentals support such a move as we saw in the late fractal 70’s into 2013.
8. On the final weekly chart is a moving average ribbon chart of Gold which shows that Gold bottomed at the top of the moving average ribbon. Gold not dropping into the MA ribbon means that there is no weekly moving average resistance that Gold must push through on the way back up to the recent highs to cause loss of price momentum. Thus, Gold is stronger in this way than Silver is at this time. We’d expect Gold to run back up to the angled resistance line that is higher than the recent highs, correct a bit at a high level, and then move to the old highs at $1,920 and higher.
Editor’s Note: The above post may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…), and reformatted (including the title, some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article.
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13. Goldrunner: Gold to Rocket To Around $4,000, And Then on to $10,000-$12,000
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