munKNEE.com Your Key to Making Money
About three months ago, shortly before Greece’s sovereign debt was
restructured, I began to warn about Spain as the next Eurozone country to focus on. That has, indeed, turned out to be ‘all the news’ with reports every day on Spain’s deteriorating financial condition. Given the ongoing world economic uncertainty and volatility, however, I suggest you now begin to pay very careful attention to Italy going forward, but doing so without losing sight of what is transpiring in Spain. [Let me explain why I see ‘Italy’ eventually surpassing Spain as ‘all the news’.] Words: 485
So says Ian R. Campbell (www.StockResearchPortal.com) in edited excerpts from his synopsis and review (a component of a subscription service but presented here with his kind permission for posting on www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) of 3 articles* on the subject. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
Campbell goes on to say, in part:
My Synopsis
The International Monetary Fund released its 2012/2013 forecast for Italy, as reported in the first two articles referenced below, targeting:
- Italy’s deficit as a % of output at 2.4% in 2012 and 1.5% in 2013 as contrasted with the Italian Government’s current forecasts of 1.6% in 2012 and a balanced budget in 2013;
- Italy’s public debt (said to be 2nd highest to Greece in the Eurozone) at 123.4% in 2012, and 123.8% in 2013;
- Italy’s economy to shrink by 1.8% in 2012, and by a further 0.3% in 2013;
- Italy’s ‘primary balance’ (the budget balance excluding debt service costs) at +3% and +4% of GDP in 2012 and 2013 respectively, as contrasted to higher recent Italian Government targets of 3.4% and 4.9% respectively; and,
- Italy’s ‘tax burden’ (fiscal revenues expressed as a % of GDP) at 48.3% and 49.0% of GDP in 2012 and 2013 respectively, as contrasted to lower the recent Italian Government target of 43.8% in both years.
My Comments
Spain: Measured by GDP, Spain is:
- the fourth largest Eurozone economy, the fifth largest European economy when the United Kingdom is considered, and
- the world’s twelfth largest economy with
- an unemployment rate of around 23% and youth unemployment rate around 51%….
- [Read: Spain is an Absolute Disaster! Here’s Why]
Italy: According to IMF 2011 statistics from Wikipedia, Italy is:
- the third largest Eurozone economy, with only Germany and France being larger;
- the fourth largest European economy when the United Kingdom is considered;
- the world’s eighth largest economy; and,
- measured by GDP, boasts an economy that measured by GDP is about 50% larger than Spain’s with
- an unemployment rate of 9.3%, with a youth unemployment rate of 31.9%….
The above statistics compare most unfavourably with the IMF World and U.S. 2012 economic growth targets which they recently upgraded from 3.3% to 3.5%, and from 1.8% to 2.1%, respectively, while maintaining a +8% 2012 economic growth rate for China….
Conclusion
Given [the above and the] ongoing world economic uncertainty and volatility, I suggest you begin to pay very careful attention to Italy going forward, but to do so without losing sight of what is transpiring in Spain.
*Referenced Articles:
- Italy to Miss Budget Deficit Targets, Debt to Rise: IMF
- As We Assured Clients Two Years Ago, Italy’s Riding the Broken Promise Express To Restructuring
- Italy’s Jobless Rate Increases to Highest Since 2001
(The above is just one of many of Stock Research Portal’s daily commentaries, critiques, ‘Think for Yourself’ challenges and daily ‘Speak For Themselves’ World Headline summaries. Subscribe now to receive our full, unabridged newsletter.)
Editor’s Note: The above article has been has edited ([ ]), abridged (…), and reformatted (including the title, some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article.
Related Articles:
1. Spain is an Absolute Disaster! Here’s Why
Spain is an absolute disaster on a level that [it seems] few, if any, analysts can even grasp. [Let me try to.] Words: 428
2. Graham Summers: Collapse of Europe is Guaranteed! Here’s Why
I continue to see articles in the media claiming that Europe’s problems are solved. Either the folks writing these articles can’t do simple math, or they don’t bother actually reading any of the political news coming out of Europe [so let me present 3 data points that guarantee Europe will collapse at some point in the near future]. Words: 722
3. The Coming Crisis in Europe Will Result in a MAJOR CRISIS in the U.S.! Here’s Why
In this article I lay out precisely why the coming Crisis in Europe will be THE Crisis I’ve been forecasting for the last 24 months, why it will have dire consequences on the U.S. and why the Fed can do absolutely nothing to stop it this time round. Words: 1334
4. Ongoing European Crisis to Result in Higher Inflation and Higher Gold Prices – Here’s Why
On the surface things may appear to be calm, but I don’t think the European crisis is anywhere near its conclusion. Losses still have to be taken from Ireland, Spain, Portugal and possibly even Italy…There are a number of ways out of Europe’s problems. One of them is higher inflation…[which] is going to be very positive for gold… because the central banks will be under pressure to print.
5. Alf Field’s 7 “D’s” of the Developing Disaster Revisited
When the supply of something is increased sharply relative to demand, the value of that commodity will decline. If the supply continues to increase rapidly and indefinitely, then that item will become worth less and less, with the potential to finally become nearly worthless. This is the Developing Disaster facing the US Dollar and the world. This is the factor that could become the single most important criterion in investment allocation decisions and possibly even for individual financial survival…[Let me explain this further by reviewing the 7 major problems facing the U.S. (and thus the world) and how they all will lead to problem #7 – devolution.] Words: 1520
6. Where Is This Unprecedented Global Financial Crisis Headed? A Retrospective from Alf Field
According to the latest real-time Worldwide Consumer Confidence Index most respondents believe that their economic circumstances will improve over the next 6 months even though such confidence has declined marginally from 30 days ago. You don’t feel the same way? OK, read on and actually participate in the survey to have your view of things so recorded. It is fast and easy to do. Here’s how. Words: 410