U.S. Military Warns of Serious Oil Shortfall by 2015

The US military’s Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command has warned that surplus oil production capacity could disappear by 2012 and that there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact. Words: 455

In further edited excerpts from the original article*/report** Terry Macalister (www.guardian.co.uk) goes on to say:

“While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India,” says the report.

The US military says its views cannot be taken as US government policy but admits they are meant to provide the Joint Forces with “an intellectual foundation upon which we will construct the concept to guide out future force developments.”

Glen Sweetnam, main oil adviser to the Obama administration, confirmed the US military’s contention stating in a recent interview with French newspaper, Le Monde, that “a chance exists that we may experience a decline” of world liquid fuels production between 2011 and 2015 if the investment was not forthcoming.

These warnings are the latest in a series from around the world that has turned peak oil – the moment when demand exceeds supply – from a distant threat to a more immediate risk.

Future fuel supplies are of acute importance to the US army because it is believed to be the biggest single user of petrol in the world. BP chief executive, Tony Hayward, said recently that there was little chance of crude from the carbon-heavy Canadian tar sands being banned in America because the US military like to have local supplies rather than rely on the politically unstable Middle East.

The Joint Operating Environment report paints a bleak picture of what can happen on occasions when there is serious economic upheaval. “One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest,” it points out.

*http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply
**http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2010/JOE_2010_o.pdf (Note pages 24-29 of 76)

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