Tag Archives: gold miners

Following a brutal year for bullion in 2013 and an even worse year for gold miners, those bullish on the yellow metal and the companies that extract it from the earth may finally have something to hang their hats on.

Support is support until it collapses but if the 10-year support line for the HUI Index is breached it is a loooong way down!!!

The damage has already been done. Junior mining companies have already dropped 80%. Rather than wallow in the injustice of the apparent gold market manipulation, I believe it is better to apply the wisdom, "if you can't beat them, join them."

Gold miners have been an embarrassment. A dollar put in gold five years ago would be worth about a $1.70 today; that same dollar in Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) would be worth only $0.80. What explains this sorry performance?

While $500 silver probably won't happen its rise will be orgasmic - a rapid climax rally followed by a dramatic decline. Gold will be a buy up to $3,500.

Looking at the recent Gold Miners price action and crash-like conditions, I cannot hide my excitement. As we judge the recent cyclical bear market within the longer term secular uptrend, we can see that Gold Miners are becoming very attractive. Whether it is the technically oversold levels that only occur a handful of times over a generation, the rock bottom valuations on nominal or relative basis, or the extreme sentiment that the overall sector is going through, all of these indicators point to one conclusion: we are fast approaching a major buying opportunity. [I support that contention below with the use of 8 charts and a full explanation of each.] Words: 1133; Charts: 8

Just as US investors are advised not to fight the Federal Reserve, gold investors worldwide would be well advised not to fight the Government of India. India is the world's largest gold consumer [and their intent on curbing gold imports by any means necessary could have a negative effect] on world gold demand [and, as such, most likely, on gold prices. IMO,] at best, we will see a sideways market in the price of gold in 2013, and at worst, this will be the year when gold prices start the inexorable drop.

GDX is currently at approx. 42 but should it drop below the 39 & 40 levels reached last May and July our analysis shows that a good deal of sellers could come forward and push GDX a large percentage lower. That double bottom needs to hold in GDX!!! Take a look at the chart below and you will clearly see why that is the case.

The best way to look at miners, in relation to gold, is to look at the relative strength of each which is most clearly illustrated through ratio analysis. Whether you are a fundamental or technical analyst, both schools of thought support the notion of investing in sectors that exhibit positive relative strength. For those unfamiliar, the idea is that relative strength tends to persist over time and that it is often best to invest in securities that exhibit positive relative strength. [So what does relative strength analysis suggest is the appropriate course of action these days? Let's take a look.] Words: 805

If you aren't already in, this coming Monday or Tuesday (Nov. 5-6th) should represent an exceptional buying opportunity as gold moves into its final intermediate cycle bottom. Now that the 38% retracement has been breached I would look for a final exhaustion move to test the 50% level early next week as we move into the elections. Words: 284