Tag Archives: buy and hold

If a strategy, model, or indicator can’t even beat brain-dead buy and hold, then it doesn’t have much value [and that is the case with the 200 day moving average]. For every one time it does work, there are two times it doesn’t work. In other words, technical analysis gives you too many false signals that causes you to underperform buy and hold. Here's proof.

Dollar cost averaging is a simple and effective strategy of investing fixed amounts of cash at predetermined times. If you invest $1,000 every month, then you are dollar cost averaging. The strategy is easy to understand, but many of the benefits are not so obvious. Here are 4 such benefits:

One would think that following two major market corrections of over 50% within the last two decades, investors would have a better appreciation for how much time it takes to compound your way out of losses. While buy-and-hold investors who stayed true to their strategy over the last two decades are indeed ahead, they lost many years of valuable compounding time in a quest to “get back to even.” The bottom line is that corrections and crashes matter a lot.

Investment “rules” that were relevant for a century are obsolete. They were based on a world where economies grew, people’s standard of living increased and outcomes tomorrow better than today. Arguably each of these conditions will not hold in the future but if they don't, neither do the rules of thumb that guided investing last century. These guiding principles developed and worked in a world that that no longer exists but applying them in the future will result in devastating financial outcomes. [Let me explain.] Words: 1261

In volatile markets you must be able to go to cash when markets become dangerous. That is exactly what the momentum selection model does well. It protects your capital on the downside and enables it to grow on the upside! If you insist on staying in the stock market at all times, even perfect foresight cannot protect you. The ability and willingness to periodically run away beats the macho strategy of holding on.

Assume that we are at a point corresponding to the beginning of 2007. How would our investing/trading techniques weather the same conditions represented by this most recent market adjustment? Would we be able to mitigate the losses (or even avoid them)? A traditional buy & hold, diversified investing strategy will be evaluated here.

My answer to the issue of staying in or getting out of markets is to stay in. This answer is independent of whether a correction is imminent or a few years down the road because we cannot possibly know that information....There will be a time to completely flee markets. It is just not now or at least I don’t believe so.

The world is hurdling toward what seems to be certain economic collapse so, if your expectations are similar to mine, then you should be exploring ways to prepare for something that eventually will become an economic dark age. Investment performance is always relevant and it has never been more important than in these difficult economic times - nor has it ever been more difficult. Markets have already changed and are getting worse...As the economy worsens, market movements [like the two 50% declines we have seen since 2000] are likely to become more pronounced [and, as such,] it behooves anyone with exposure to the stock market to understand what is happening and [take action to] protect themselves against further 50%, and possibly larger, downsides. [This article outlines how best to do just that.] Words: 1491; Charts: 2; Tables: 1

One of the hardest things for individual investors to do is to know when to sell a stock. Many times, you might sell simply because a stock has gone up and you've made some money. More often than not, though, this is not a great reason to sell [because, as mentioned in the title of this article,] you will never - ever - have a 10-bagger if you sell a stock after a 2-bagger. That being said, what things should one consider before selling? Words: 912

Many income investors have been taught to believe that “market-timing” is anathema to their investment objectives and/or that it can’t be done successfully... I will argue that this piece of conventional wisdom is false - dangerously false. In a three-part series of essays, I will argue that market-timing needs to be incorporated as a fundamental component of income investing. I will demonstrate why market-timing is important, when it should be applied and how it should be implemented. [Read on!] Words: 1956