Tag Archives: business cycle

Equity markets in the U.S. have bounced back over the past couple of weeks and have shown strong momentum to the upside. We are now well into the fourth year of a rising equity market and we might now reasonably ask the obvious question, "When might this end?"

Goldman Sachs reports their Global Economic Indicators (GLI) show the world has re-entered a contraction and...is predicting a market crash worse than that of the early 90′s recession and one slightly less than the sell-off at the turn of the millennium. [Below are graphs to support their contentions.] Words: 250

We are approaching the end of the current 8.6 year wave come June 13th, 2011. What awaits us on the other side is a change in the overall trend. [Let me explain what is developing.] Words: 420

Presently, the federal government is increasing spending that in the end may actually retard economic activity, and is also proposing tax increases that will further restrain private sector growth. In other words, fiscal policy is executing a program that is 180 degrees opposite from what it should be to stimulate the economy. How is it possible to get an inflationary cocktail out of deflationary ingredients? Words: 1461

This is NOT a business cycle: this is a one-time reversal of twenty years of inflation of the household balance sheet. An aging population needs a 10% savings rate (at least) to meet minimum funding requirements for the biggest retirement wave in US history but, instead, with 17% effective unemployment, many Americans are dis-saving. Words: 332